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What will your university degree investment be worth after the '2035 new petrol & diesel car ban' ?
On September 21, 2023 the UK government pushed back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2035, from the original target of 2030_by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
To help us understand this more quickly, let us turn to Driving.co.uk's useful guide, which offers 12 things you need to know about the 2035 petrol and diesel car ban (here) https://www.driving.co.uk/car-clinic/advice/2030-petrol-diesel-car-ban-12-things-need-know/
The UK is addicted to oil, and plans to go cold turkey trying to stop using oil virtually overnight from 2035; Quietly introducing electric cars, and banning petrol and diesel cars after decades of population & settlement' expansion;
All the while, UK law currently allows cars and vans with so-called clean Euro engines up to 18+ years old to avoid the congestion charge in towns and cities across the UK!
But how can any van engine have clean emissions after 18 years of albeit commercial use? This is where 18 year old vans used in the London 2023 ULEZ expansion don't even face more stringent annual MOT emissions checks; demonstrating how the London ULEZ expansion is a poorly conceived farce!
Soon after 2035, by 2040 is a guide; the UK government will discourage the use of petrol and diesel; by charging:
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higher congestion-charge (Tax),
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higher road-tax,
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higher exhaust emissions standards (Tax & more stringent MOT's),
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AND higher fuel prices at the pumps (Tax).
The UK has already legislated to ban 'new' petrol & diesel car sales from 2035.
This is the end of UK domestic motoring as we know it! - Perhaps the end of the car-less UK economy too!
From 2030 low income workers will find it increasingly unaffordable to obtain used-vehicles for work transport.
This is because they rely on used-vehicles which are typically 10 to 20 years old for commuting to work. But gas guzzling super-polluters are set to be taxed off the roads. This will probably be a combination of higher congestion-charges, higher road-tax and higher exhaust emissions standards (aka, the UK government's annual vehicle safety certificate or MOT) AND ALSO charged higher fuel prices at the pumps.
Prices for existing used-vehicles are already soaring in 2023, due factors like the congestion charge, and the 2035 ban on new petrol & diesel cars. People who traditionally bought new cars are buying up the used-cars, because it is more economical to wait for the change to electric cars, and where they can save some money for an electric vehicle as the need for an electric car becomes more urgent. This is because a new car in 2023 will attract the congestion charge soon after 2030, and will hold no trade-in value. But low income workers will stand no chance of affording the price of a new electric car, and even less chance of obtaining a used electric car since used stocks are extremely limited.
Electric motorcycles are a viable option, but the price of a new 3kw (or 50cc) moped would buy a reasonable petrol or diesel used-car, which continues to be more economically desirable in anticipation for when the 'new petrol and diesel car ban' comes into force in 2030.
The RAC Foundation say - 'Scrapping older vehicles that fare worse on emission standards has a "negligible" effect on air quality'. https://www.motorfinanceonline.com/news/industry-news/rac-scrapping-older-cars-has-negligible-effect-on-pollution/
In short, this means businesses not immediately next to major transport hubs, like trains, will struggle to maintain manpower levels. Buses are not usually considered an option. Those who have used buses know that they rarely cover industrial estates beyond sociable hours (9am - 5pm), let alone any service whatsoever to more remote work sites. Put simply, there is usually no viable bus service for most workers, for example, where sites operate a 6am to 2pm & 2pm to 10pm shift system; because buses do not usually operate outside normal working hours, for example 9am to 5pm.
As Low Emission Zones (LEZ's) increase in size, more people with cars over 9 years old will be charged hefty congestion charges and road tax for daily travel; meaning nearly all petrol and diesel cars will be taxed off the roads.
To apply a benchmark to the thinking behind congestion charging; the original London Congestion Charge began with 9 years old cars and vans, when it was first introduced in 2003.
Later so-called leaner Euro engines were introduced, which currently allows cars and vans up to 18+ years old to avoid the congestion charge in towns and cities across the UK.
However the bureaucracy of Euro engines will soon be superseded by common-sense, in that public opinion will force owners of all vehicles over 9 years old to pay the congestion-charge. That is, if they can afford the soaring petrol and diesel costs after 2030, higher congestion-charges, higher road-tax and higher exhaust emissions standards (or MOT standards).
A Channel 4 Dispatches programme outlined the reduced range of a 9 year old electric car.
A 2023 BBC Panorama programme asks; Electric Cars - Is It Time to Buy? With the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to be banned in less than seven years, fewer than one in thirty vehicles on Britain’s roads are battery-powered. Reporter Richard Bilton takes a trip to find out whether the UK is ready.
Will congestion charging rules return to taxing vehicles over 9 years old? Some congestion charge zones already charge vehicles over 9 years old, which is the original congestion charging concept, and which is more publically recognized as a sensible starting point for congestion charging.
But since broadcast information surrounding Low Emission Zones (LEZ's) is really fairly minimal, no one has got the message about cars and vans up to 18+ years old avoiding the congestion charge in towns and cities across the UK. This is because most of the information is embedded in the internet, and not made commonplace knowledge from national and local TV news etc. If the public were more informed that there were 18+ years old cars and vans with Euro engines not being congestion charged for entering Low Emission Zones (LEZ's), then there would be a public outcry!
The petrol and diesel car ban was brought forward by 10 years. The ban on new petrol and diesel car sales had initially been planned for 2040 but has been brought forward to 2030 under Boris Johnson's 10-point plan to tackle climate change.
However, the RAC has warned that charging infrastructure will need to be expanded at an 'incredible pace' and prices will have to come down to make electric vehicles a realistic choice for drivers.
Now that the ban on new petrol and diesel cars has been moved forward to 2030; with only eight years to go, are we really ready to switch to electric vehicles? Let’s take a look.
To avoid the most serious effects of climate change, carbon emissions have to drop to net zero by 2050. Therefore the UK government has signed a legally-binding contract to reach this target. But to reach this goal, the government will have to cut emissions from cars and transport in general.
The 2030 ban will only apply to new car sales. There are no plans as yet to ban the sale of petrol and diesel. However it is thought that the public will be discouraged from using petrol and diesel shortly after 2030, perhaps by 2035 is a guide.
With a ban on new petrol and diesel cars, the political landscape will place more emphasis on discouraging the remaining old petrol and diesel cars. Focus will also be placed on heavy goods vehicles (HGV's), heavy passenger vehicles (PSV's), trains, aircraft and even shipping will all be under huge pressure to use much cleaner engines.
The clock is ticking towards 2030, and the UK has less and less time to confront this huge issue; while everyone seems to be dragging their feet. The emerging transport crises could force the UK to undergo immense social changes. It is thought that the emphasis for the production of food will be sourced more locally, and of course from more environmentally friendly methods of farming.
People may well not have the freedoms petrol and diesel cars currently yield, but may be limited to much more humble uses of greener transport. This could lead to a much more localized community compared with the commuting workforce of today. This is all set to happen almost overnight, where the UK has a very limited electric car charging infrastructure.
To reiterate the forthcoming difficulties; industries like farming could be forced to use electric tractors, which takes farming back 100 years to the dawn of steam tractors which used cables and pulleys in agriculture.
Cable ploughing using a steam tractor, which would have ploughed fields ideally using two steam tractors c. 1920.
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Will the UK continue on its path to becoming a net zero, or will the UK go back on its green energy commitment? The UK is thought to be heading towards less prosperous times. Putting off commitments like 'the 2030 petrol & diesel ban' could become economically attractive during periods of high unemployment and social unrest; due to peoples inability to meet the DWP (or Jobcentre's) new criteria (or rules) to obtain unemployment benefits. This comes after sweeping changes to the UK's social security system have not yet been tried and tested in less affluent times.
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With a UK national debt over £2Trillion, will the UK in reality still have a workforce after people are stopped from using very old vehicles as commuter transport? People on low incomes may not be able to afford an electric car. There may be no way to commute long distances. There may be no way for businesses to operate without a sustainable workforce.
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Will the public accept being discouraged from using petrol and diesel fuels by higher prices at the pumps? The public can barley cope with a few pence change in the price of fuel. How then are they going to afford a new electric car costing at least £30,000? There will be a shortage of used-cars in the interim due to low stocks of used-cars. Used car prices are already soaring in 2023.
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Disgruntled motorists who have been forced to use electric cars will demand industry follows suit! The public will demand that heavy goods vehicles (HGV's), heavy passenger vehicles (PSV's), trains, aircraft and even shipping are banned from using fossil fuels.
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The UK's electricity network will come under increased pressure to stop using coal and gas to make electricity. Then as gas and heating fuel oil are banned, low income families will be left without heating for their homes.
Sky News outline some of these problems in this video link.
https://youtu.be/j1mno5vKVaY
The misleading cost and finance of electric cars in the UK (example).
Finance on new electric cars is often misleadingly stated by the UK media as being in the region of £199 a month (over 4 years).
Even ITV's This Morning programme misleadingly reported the Renault Zoe was said to cost £199 per month on finance (on May 5, 2021).
The expected UK norm. - Thousands of cars and lorries queued at the Port of Dover for 2022 school half- term holidays.
Let's look at the real cost of electric cars.
Car manufacturers and even the UK Media continue to report that electric cars have a low cost.
The official advertising for the Volkswagon Golf 8 states their electric car can be purchased on finance for a mere £210 per month. But in the full finance calculation, which is a stated below, and which was captured from the Volkswagen website; the total amount payable over 4 years is £26,628. Without going into minute detail, to make this calculation work, almost £6,000 deposit is required, and a final payment of almost £10,000.
But this finance is extremely misleading and not affordable to families on low incomes.
What will families on low incomes be able to afford? Perhaps a used electric car over 7 years old? This will require a new battery, or regular servicing of the cars battery; to which we have been able to obtain the garage costs. From our information, it will cost something like £500 to replace damaged cells per visit. Faulty electric car batteries can also involve damaged electrical components which are very complicated and difficult to diagnose, as well as extremely specialized to mend, albeit if they are at all mend-able. There is no guarantee the battery refurbishment will work, and the cars range may be well reduced to giving at best less than 50 miles from a full charge.
Link to Volkswagen's online finance options for the Golf 8 electric car,
Url: https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/finance-offers-and-fleet/new-car-deals/golf-8#1038
Misleading TV marketing techniques.
Images below from a Renault TV advert, and the Renault website, show their misleading finance options costing £199 per month for a Renault Zoe electric car over 3 years (on June 15, 2021). However, anyone can deduce that £199 over 36 months does not amount to the cars full price which is £27,495.
We attempt to explain where the outstanding balance of £20,331 comes from?
The answer, again, a £7,740 deposit is required, and a final payment of £15,341. This is stated in the TV advert, but the advertised finance options are flashed up on TV screens in small text, giving consumers only a few seconds to take in the information which is barely readable. This is where consumers already have a good idea of the full price of the advertised electric car. However, the manufacturer continue to use underhand advertising methods to try to deceive potential consumers, which in our opinion, only descends into more consumer distrust, than quoting the full price or finance options; as they should. This comes amidst recent legal action by the UK authorities against (TV) advertisers for all kinds of issues, from retouching magazine model's photographs, to misleading credit providers. Yet the UK government continues to allow misleading electric car advertising in all its forms, as seen on ITV's This Morning when they reported on the Renault Zoe, which was said to cost £199 per month on finance over 4 years (on May 5, 2021). But the ITV programme was misleading, in that they did not inform viewers about the £7,740 deposit and the £15,341 final payment.
Electric car manufacturers have been seen to do anything they can to advertise and sell their products using questionable methods, which would normally attract legal action by the UK authorities. But the UK authorities are blatantly biased where electric cars are concerned, and only impose fines in situations which attract public opinion from, for example, political incorrectness, for magazine cover model retouching, or for using 'catwalk models who are too thin'. This is an example of veiled cross party political corruption by the UK government and opposition parties, which is an attempt to try to harness public support for electric cars, albeit to try to improve their flagging attempts to implement greener-energy infrastructure. This is because the UK government wants to help electric car manufacturers to meet the UK government's 2030 target to ban new petrol and diesel cars, and to introduce electric cars. Electric car manufacturers therefore sweeten consumer deals with questionable gimmicks to try to better sell electric cars, which are still seen by the UK public as: more challenging to recharge, having limited range as the vehicle gets older (after 7 years), more likely to become stranded, more expensive to buy, more expensive to replace or repair the battery (after 7 years), vulnerable to metal thefts from the nickel cadmium battery; therefore a less desirable option than new petrol and diesel cars.
The current pricing regimes, and indeed the full price of new electric cars, is not affordable to people on low incomes, who traditionally commute to work in very old cars colloquially known as 'jalopy's', which are often super-polluting cars that are well past the end of their life. This is because low income workers are economically reliant on old cars to obtain transport for commuting; otherwise they would simply not be able to afford to get to work sites.
Old gas guzzling super-polluting 'jalopy's' are currently perfectly legal to drive in the UK, if the owner can obtain a UK Government annual safety test or MOT. However, under the UK government's annual vehicle safety test or MOT test (laws), 10 to 20+ years old gas guzzling super-polluters emissions are not very highly scrutinized. For example, a 10 to 20 years old car, which passes a UK Government annual safety test or MOT test, would not get anywhere close to meeting the standard of vehicles which meet the Low Emission Zones (LEZ's) standards.
By 2030, this is going to leave low income workers without the ability to commute to work? The vague UK legislation which has already laid down that all new petrol and diesel cars are set to be banned in 2030 will also tax or ban all existing petrol and diesel cars (over 9 years old) off the roads, albeit it will be economically unviable to run such a vehicle. The simple fact is, the governments legislation to ban petrol and diesel cars from 2030 is a blunt instrument that will leave low income workers without any means to travel to work. Indeed employers themselves may struggle to implement their own van and HGV requirements.
Electric cars are a relatively new technology. Therefore, petrol and diesel car owners have yet to be convinced that electric cars are viable, when they know they have less range and less refueling stations than petrol and diesel cars etc. There is currently a limited charging network. It will also take much longer to 'fast-charge' an electric car than it takes to refuel a petrol and diesel car. This will mean that many more charging points will need to made available at refueling centres. There is simply not enough space at existing garage forecourts to do this. For electric car charging, when compared to diesel and petrol refuelling, will need much more space for cars to park whilst charging. There is simply not enough space at existing forecourts and no option to expand in most areas where garage forecourts are located, let alone in cities where space is at a premium.
Domestic charging installations albeit home charging points (for low income families) are virtually nil. Typically only privileged homes can afford charging points. The rest of the public have virtually no access to charging points. Therefore the majority of the UK public who live in homes where they cannot charge electric cars cannot purchase electric cars. Even ITV's This Morning admitted this in their report on May 5, 2021! See link here: https://youtu.be/C3woF6iEFPI
Electric car battery cost.
The price of new car batteries is ambiguous. The UK government and the media seem set on using misleading positive rhetoric to promote the UK's roll out of electric cars, and now for replacement electric car batteries. Looking at the price of key metals used to manufacture the batteries, as well as the shortage of electric cars for sale, not just UK nationally, but internationally, it seems that the prices that some websites are speculating are more than a trifle low.
The UK was set to manufacture 300,000 new batteries from a new state of the art electric car factory. The site was in development until November 2022 when the company made news headlines for running out of cash. So we ask, what chance do consumers have to obtain a new electric car battery?
Book-my-garage.com offer a list of replacement batteries and prices. Looking at the list at first sight, I for one would be surprised to actually buy a new electric car battery for around the average price of £5,000.
Not only do websites misleadingly report on the cost of electric car batteries, but some say the average life span will be 10 to 20 years, and some say that electric car batteries may never need changing.
I would be extremely surprised if an electric car battery for a low end electric car lasted more than 7 years before it was significantly worn out, not least because of the up-rated charge when using fast-charging refueling stations. The information surrounding electric car batteries is therefore extremely misleading, and probably based on high end top quality electric cars like the Tesla electric car.
There are other economic considerations when purchasing an electric car. There are very few domestic charging points. Buyers also know that electric car batteries are a target for car metal thefts. This means car owners can expect to have to secure their electric car in a locked-garage overnight, or will need extensive security devices to protect their car from theft.
With the average price for a low end new electric car now starting at £30,000; will the shortage of electric cars and electric car batteries see you forking out more than you expect?
How long do ELECTRIC BATTERIES in cars LAST?
Anyone in the basic mobile phone bracket will have experience of swollen mobile phone batteries and phone-casings that don't fit over the swollen battery. Some will even have seen mobile phone battery fires and exploding batteries. These kinds of faults commonly appear in mobile phones after just 3 to 5 years.
Electric-car batteries are very similar to mobile phone batteries, especially because they have similar components, like the metal Lithium which is used to generate electricity in the battery cell. They therefore have the same traits, faults and lifespan as mobile phone batteries. They are after all the same kind of rechargeable compact battery which are typically very delicate, and have been said by insurance companies, 'that they may become damaged by low impact collisions in car parks'.
Electric-car batteries will probably also become damaged by fast-charging; where manufacturers have advised against using fast-chargers or any other charger than the manufacturers own charging equipment supplied with the vehicle. Doing so will invalidate the cars warranty.
Why is it then that people seem to think that electric-car batteries will last and last, in the same way jalopy petrol and diesel engines do? Jalopy cars having been the backbone of low income workers transport for decades.
From the information availble to us, the evidence shows that many cheap electric-cars, and this could be the majority, have virtually no range left after just 9 years. This could be the next crisis for low income used-car buyers, who may struggle to find any used electric-car with any range left in the battery.
Anyone who has tried to replace the battery in their mobile phone will also know that even the slightest battery incompatability or the slightest existing battery circuit fault in their phone, will lead to their mobile-phone and the phones replacement-battery destroying itself. This means that it may be all but impossible to repair old electric-car batteries albiet the individual battery-cells.
A more obvious barrier to changing electric-car batteries is the lack of dealers who can sell you a new electric-car battery for older electric-cars. Though a new electric-car battery could be economically unviable due to it's cost, which is likely to be in the region of two-thirds of the elelctric-cars new market value. The slightest fault in the older electric-car's electric circuitry can cause the new battery to destroy itself and the cars remaining circuitry immediately when it is installed.
In short, a new electric-car battery may melt down, destroying the battery and the electric-car. Since this usually starts with the battery heating up. The probable outcome will result in a fire, that as insurance companies have stated, will spread to other nearby vehicles.
Here we have a video which we thought best illustrates 'How Long Electric Batteries In Cars Last?'.
Why are electric car prices and their finance so important?
UK motorists have become extremely reliant on cars for everyday living. For many people, and you could say the majority, the motor car provides essential everyday access to things like work, food, healthcare and recreation. Cars have become essential for vital day to day necessities, like getting the kids to school, shopping for food, hospital visits, providing care for the elderly, and many other vital tasks which are too many to list.
Much of car use is also attributed to the government’s design of out of town amenities and work hubs. For example, the NHS has centralized hospital care in newly built hospitals often on the outskirts of towns. Many supermarkets and retail parks are all but inaccessible without cars. To reiterate, most work sites, which are often large factories, are all but inaccessible without cars because public transport does not operate at the early and late times workers shift times start and finish, for example, 6am to 2pm & 2pm to 10pm shifts.
The UK has already passed laws in Parliament to stop manufacturers making and selling petrol and diesel cars by 2030. (See link to a Sky News video. https://youtu.be/j1mno5vKVaY)
By 2035 we can also expect to be discouraged from using petrol and diesel, most likely from taxes at the pumps. Hybrid cars will also be discouraged from 2035. The UK government has said that their ideal model for motorists is to go completely electric from 2035.
However, the RAC has warned, that the charging infrastructure will need to be expanded at an 'incredible pace' and prices will have to come down to make electric vehicles a realistic choice for drivers.
Why therefore, did the UK government allow the construction of out of town amenities, in virtually the same time frame they were set to ban combustion engines from the roads will be a matter for the relevant enquiry - as the UK economy is set to tumble due to the attributed green-energy reversal of the UK's oil led economy, albeit the UK's frantic construction-economy since Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's so-called Popular-capitalism greatly increased UK settlement expansion since the 1980's.
Is the Electric Vehicle Revolution Here to stay? CBS News investigate what are people saying about the silent revolution.
The Lithium Price
There is only a limited supply of the Lithium element (the metal which drives the electric car battery), because it only makes up 0.0007 percent of the Earth’s crust. According to the US Geological Survey, with the current global production of 37,000 tons a year, mankind has enough reserves for 365 years—if current demand remains the same. But experts predict that by 2040 the world will need 800,000 tons of lithium for just battery production alone!
In 2021, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was estimated at 17,000 U.S. dollars per metric ton. Along with 2018, it was the highest figure recorded in a decade. Lithium is a highly reactive soft and silvery-white alkali metal. As the third element in the periodic table, it has 3 protons in its nucleus and three electrons around it. As a result of being highly reactive, it cannot be found in its pure form in nature. Lithium is the least dense of solid elements and the lightest out of all metals.
The UK's Guardian newspaper explains the surge in Lithium prices.
